What prediction markets tell you that price doesn’t

A stock price tells you what an asset is worth right now. A prediction market tells you the crowd's probability of a future event — a rate cut, an election outcome, a team lifting a trophy. For a trader, that is a different and often earlier signal.

Why probabilities beat opinions

Pundits give you narratives; prediction markets give you a number with money behind it. When a market prices a September rate cut at 68%, that is the aggregate, capital-weighted view — and it moves in real time as new information lands, frequently ahead of the talking heads.

Reading the price

The contract price is the implied probability: a market trading at 0.68 implies a 68% chance. Two things to watch:

• The level — how likely the crowd thinks the event is.
• The trend — a probability climbing from 40% to 70% over a week is a story; the direction of the change often matters more than the snapshot.

Where it fits in a trading process

Prediction markets are a sentiment and catalyst tool. Use them to (1) gauge how much of an event is already priced in, (2) spot divergences between what markets-for-events expect and what asset prices imply, and (3) track the run-up into a known catalyst. They are not a crystal ball — thin markets can be noisy, and probability is not certainty.

Termimal surfaces Polymarket probabilities alongside your charts and macro, with the daily move and history — so event risk sits in the same workspace as everything else you watch.

Prediction-market data is shown for research and is not betting or investment advice.

Open the Termimal terminal free → Charting, macro, COT, on-chain and prediction-market signals in one place, from €9.99/month.